LOCKDOWNS HIT CANADIAN Q1 GDP

Near-Record Decline in Q1 GDP Better Than Flash Estimate

The hand-wringing about the Q1 GDP data released today misses the point that the data were actually better than expected. The Canadian economy declined at an 8.2% annualized rate in the first quarter, less harsh than the earlier estimate by StatsCan of -10%. Of course, every sector of the economy was hit by the enforced shutdown, but not by nearly as much as most economists anticipated. For the month of March, the decline was 7.2%, less dire than the -9% earlier estimate.

In light of the current unprecedented national and global economic environment, StatsCan is providing leading indicators fo economic activity. Their preliminary flash estimate for April is an 11% decline in real GDP. This estimate will be revised as more info becomes available, but the March and April decreases are likely to be the largest consecutive monthly declines on record.

The Economy Has Bottomed

It looks increasingly likely that we are already past the bottom of the latest economic downturn, with GDP potentially getting back on a positive growth trajectory as early as May.

That won’t be enough to prevent a historically large drop in Q2 output– likely multiples of the decline in Q1–but it would leave the data tracking along the more “optimistic” end of the -15% to -30% growth range estimated by the Bank of Canada in their last Monetary Policy Report. Government support programs for those losing work have been unprecedented–household disposable income actually edged up slightly in Q1 despite the large drop in overall economic activity, boosted by government transfers. With the decline in spending in March and April and the rise in disposable income, the savings rate is soaring. All of us are saving money by doing our own cooking and cleaning. We aren’t travelling and shopping is certainly limited, not to mention the savings on gasoline, entertainment, hairstyling and gym memberships. Hopefully, this could provide a cushion to support spending and the economy will turn sharply higher in Q3.

Still, the three million jobs lost over March and April will not be recouped quickly. The lockdown is easing only gradually, and any activities requiring large gatherings–think tourism, conferences, concerts, movies and sports–will remain closed until there is a vaccine or effective treatment. We expect things will begin to get better from this point, but still look for the unemployment rate to remain elevated at 8.5% in Q4 of this year. It is currently 13%.

THE HOUSING OUTLOOK

Much has been made of the recent CMHC Housing Market Outlook report released this week. The gloomy outlook of up to an 18% drop in home prices, a delayed recovery not until 2022, and a 20% arrears rate garnered headlines. First-time homebuyers were warned that housing was no longer a good investment, at least not over a three-year horizon. But the CMHC’s own data shows that home prices have risen an average of 5% annually over the past twenty-five years. And though no one’s retirement nest egg should consist solely of their residential real estate, a home is one of the few investments that you can actually use. People buy homes for many reasons well beyond wealth accumulation. The pride of ownership and lifestyle choice dominates the decision to buy for many.

Also this week, the Governor of the Bank of Canada suggested that the doomsters were overly pessimistic and asserted his view that the economy would recover from its medically induced coma much faster than the pessimists were suggesting. Clearly, none of us have a crystal ball, nor have we ever before experienced a pandemic recession. While we rise from the abyss, the pain may well be far from over. People are still losing jobs and many businesses continue to sink. Any recovery is dependent on whether the virus cases keep slowing and whether there is a second wave of infections.

But oil prices have risen sharply, a major boon for Alberta and some high-frequency data have improved. The stock market is well off its lows, interest rates have fallen sharply and the qualifying rate for mortgage stress tests has fallen to 4.94%. Actual mortgage rates are near record lows and are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future.

In time, immigration to Canada will restart, and foreign students will return. New businesses are blossoming even now and many sectors will continue to advance. To name a few, we are seeing burgeoning growth in telemedicine, artificial intelligence, big data analysis, cloud services, cyber-security, 5G, home entertainment, virtual everything, home fitness, DYI renovations, indeed, DIY anything.

Interested to know how to improve your credit score? You need to read this article.

CREDIT REPORTS: YOU’VE SCORED! BUT ARE YOU PLAYING THE GAME?

For most people, your personal credit score and how a credit score is calculated are complete mysteries. How can you be expected to play and be successful if you aren’t even told the rules of the game? There are things borrowers can do to improve their score so they can access better mortgage products and save thousands of dollars, or qualify for their wonderful home when they otherwise might have trouble. Let’s stick handle through just some of the key things you should know about managing your credit score.

Amount owed and utilization accounts for 30% of your score. There are a lot of people that end up with high balances on their credits cards and struggle to meet the payments each month. If they manage to pay off their credit cards without seeing a mortgage broker to consolidate their debts, often the immediate response is to close the accounts. A better response is to cut up the cards and delete the numbers from your computer and devices and keep the accounts open. You want any remaining outstanding balances to be less than 75% of your total combined credit available, and if they are less than 35%, even better, because this keeps your utilization of available credit low and increases your credit score. Types of credit and the number of different credit products accounts for 10% of the score, so this is another reason you want to keep those accounts open. Cell phone providers are now reporting to the agencies that publish credit scores as well.

In some parts of the world where credit products are not well established, a borrower’s credit is evaluated based solely on how they have managed payments on their cell phone bills. It’s important to pay your cell phone bills on time; we’re all busy, so setup automatic payments to ensure a payment is not missed. My last word of advice for today is to monitor your credit score by purchasing your own credit report each year for about $25 so you know your score and to ensure the report is accurate. This will help you stay within the boundaries of the game.

There is a lot more to managing a credit score than I can get into in this short blog. If you would like to know more, contact me or your local Dominion Lending mortgage broker. We can provide advice to help you manage your credit score and put you in a better position to qualify for a mortgage with better rates. Know the rules of the game, plan ahead for your home financing, and play SMART.

Do you want to know how much principal and interest you pay every month for your mortgage? Then this article is for you to read.

PRINCIPAL & INTEREST

Principal and interest are the two components that make up a mortgage payment. Principal is the portion of your payment that goes towards paying down the outstanding balance of your mortgage. Interest is the other portion of your payment which goes directly into the pockets of your lender and does not contribute to paying down your mortgage balance.

What some people may not realize is that a compounding interest rate (what the majority of all mortgages are) is weighted differently depending on how many years you have left on your mortgage.

If a young couple were to purchase their very first home, let’s say $500,000 for example, and they had a $100,000 down payment, their mortgage would be $400,000. If they had today’s interest rates, their mortgage would be around 3%, compounded semi-annually, over 25 years with their interest rate re-negotiable every 5-years if they keep the same term. Assuming they were able to get 3% for the entire 25-years, their monthly payments would be $1,892.98 a month for the life of their mortgage.

Their first payment however is not $1,892.98, with 97% of it going to paying down the $400,000 balance and 3% going towards interest. The very first payment would actually be broken down as $993.81 of interest and $899.17 going towards paying down the principal balance of $400,000.

Now, it won’t stay like this forever, the very last payment before the first 5-year term is up would be broken down as $854.62 going towards interest and $1,038.36 of the $1,892.98 going towards paying down the principal. It wouldn’t be until year 10 where the interest portion dips below $500.

If you can, any pre-payments you make each month will directly pay down the principal balance outstanding. This will also in turn, allow for less interest to be charged as interest is always calculated based on the current balance outstanding. In the later years, it may not be as advantageous, but in the first 5-10 years, it can be extremely beneficial.

If you want to see the break down of principal and interest portions inside your own mortgage, feel free to reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional near you.

Very useful article if you are about to purchase your first home.

5 MISTAKES FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS MAKE

Buying a home might just be the biggest purchase of your life—it’s important to do your homework before jumping in! We have outlined the 5 mistakes First Time Home Buyers commonly make, and how you can avoid them and look like a Home Buying Champ.

1. Shopping Outside Your Budget
It’s always an excellent idea to get pre-approved prior to starting your house hunting. This can give you a clear idea of exactly what your finances are and what you can comfortably afford. Your Mortgage Broker will give you the maximum amount that you can spend on a house but that does not mean that you should spend that full amount. There are additional costs that you need to consider (Property Transfer Tax, Strata Fees, Legal Fees, Moving Costs) and leave room for in your budget. Stretching yourself too thin can lead to you being “House Rich and Cash Poor” something you will want to avoid. Instead, buying a home within your home-buying limit will allow you to be ready for any potential curve balls and to keep your savings on track.

2. Forgetting to Budget for Closing Costs
Most first-time buyers know about the down payment, but fail to realize that there are a number of costs associated with closing on a home. These can be substantial and should not be overlooked. They include:

• Legal and Notary Fees
• Property Transfer Tax (though, as a First Time Home Buyer, you might be exempt from this cost).
• Home Inspection fees

There can also be other costs included depending on the type of mortgage and lender you work with (ex. Insurance premiums, broker/lender fees). Check with your broker and get an estimate of what the cost will be once you have your pre-approval completed.

3. Buying a Home on Looks Alone
It can be easy to fall in love with a home the minute you walk into it. Updated kitchen + bathrooms, beautifully redone flooring, new appliances…what’s not to like? But before putting in an offer on the home, be sure to look past the cosmetic upgrades. Ask questions such as:

1. When was the roof last done?
2. How old is the furnace?
3. How old is the water heater?
4. How old is the house itself? And what upgrades have been done to electrical, plumbing, etc.
5. When were the windows last updated?

All of these things are necessary pieces to a home and are quite expensive to finance, especially as a first- time buyer. Look for a home that has solid, good bones. Cosmetic upgrades can be made later and are far less of a headache than these bigger upgrades.

4. Skipping the Home Inspection
In a red-hot housing market a new trend is for homebuyers to skip the home inspection. This is one thing we recommend you do not skip! A home inspection can turn up so many unforeseen problems such as water damage, foundational cracks and other potential problems that would be expensive to have to repair down the road. The inspection report will provide you a handy checklist of all the things you should do to make sure your home is in great shape.

5. Not Using a Broker
We compare prices for everything: Cars, TV’s, Clothing… even groceries. So, it makes sense to shop around for your mortgage too! If you are relying solely on your bank to provide you with the best rate you may be missing out on great opportunities that a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker can offer you. They can work with you to and multiple lenders to find the sharpest rate and the best product for your lifestyle.

Are you still thinking about why to consult with the mortgage broker before renewal? Read this article and decide for yourself.

MORTGAGE RENEWALS WITH THE SAME LENDER ARE ON THE RISE, BUT SHOULD YOU JUST SIGN ON THE DOTTED LINE?

If you’re in a mortgage that’s coming up for renewal in the coming months and you’re considering just staying with your current lender, you wouldn’t be alone.
According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) Residential Mortgage Industry Report released in the summer, in 2018, the number of mortgage renewals with the same lender increased by 16 percent over the previous year.
The report suggested one of the factors that may have contributed to large increases in loan renewals with the same institution are the tighter approval criteria. In other words, people are worried they may not qualify for a new mortgage if they switch lenders, so they’re staying put.
You’ll remember in the fall of 2017, OSFI, (the Office of Superintendent of Financial Institutions) the agency that regulates the financial industry, announced tighter rules on mortgages. The biggest change related to uninsured mortgages, or homebuyers with 20 percent or more for a down payment. These people are now required to go through a “stress test” or qualify using a minimum qualifying rate.
The changes came a year after a similar stress test was introduced for insured mortgages.
If the tighter mortgage rules still have you stressed as you face a mortgage renewal, the CMHC report noted the approval rate for the same lender renewals remained stable at 99 percent. Renewals are not specifically subject to the new stress test and are more likely to meet current lender criteria, the reported noted.
So, does that mean you should just automatically renew your mortgage with the same lender when your term is up? Not necessarily. You need to reach out to a mortgage professional to get the best advice.
For starters, most lenders, especially the big banks, will send you a renewal letter when there’s about three months left on the term. Sometimes that letter could come with six months left. Typically, the lender will offer you a rate at that time and all you’ll have to do is sign at the bottom line to roll over your mortgage.
But beware, lenders often offer a higher rate than a new client because they’re hoping the ease of renewal will keep you from seeking out a new lender and lower rate.
In some cases, it may be best to just sign and roll over your mortgage. There are a few things to consider. If you decide to change lenders, you’ll basically have to go through an approval process again. That entails getting all your documents, lawyer’s fees and appraisals.
You’ll have to ask yourself, is it worth the effort to save a few basis points off your rate, or a few hundred dollars over a term to make the switch?
For some it won’t be. But, if a switch can lead to saving thousands of dollars, it would certainly be something to consider. While everyone’s situation is different, the larger the mortgage, the bigger the savings will be if you can find a lower rate.
Often, homeowners will just use a bank their parents recommend for their first mortgage. But they might find themselves not happy with the service or terms of the mortgage and may just want to switch to a different lender as the mortgage comes up for renewal.
If that’s a situation you find yourself in, you have options, and a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker can help you make the best decision.

Excellent article about mortgage monthly payments types

PAYMENT FREQUENCY

One of the decisions you will need to make before your new mortgage is set up, is what kind of payment frequency you would like to have. For many, sticking to a monthly payment is the default, however, different frequencies may end up saving you less interest over time.

Monthly Payments

Monthly payments are exactly as they sound, one payment every month until the maturity date of your mortgage at the end of your term. Took a 3-year term? You will make 36 payments (12 payments a year) and then you will need to renegotiate your interest rate. 5-year term? You will make 60 payments.

$500,000 mortgage

3% interest rate

5-year term

$2,366.23 monthly payment

$427,372.90 remaining over 20 years

$69,346.70 paid to interest

$72,627.01 paid to principal

Semi Monthly

Semi-monthly is not bi-weekly. Semi monthly is your monthly payment divided by two. That means, you are making 24 payments every year, but each payment is slightly less than half of what the monthly payment would have been.

$500,000 mortgage

3% interest rate

5-year term

$1,182.38 semi monthly payment

$427,372.99 remaining over 20 years

$69,258.59 paid to interest

$72,627.01 paid to principal

Bi-Weekly

Bi-weekly, you are not making 2 payments every month. With 52 weeks in a year, you are actually making 26 payments, 2 more than semi-monthly (2 months a year you make 3 bi-weekly payments). The interest paid and balance owing is slightly less than the others, but mere cents. You will still need to make payments for another 20 years.

$500,000 mortgage

3% interest rate

5-year term

$1,091.38 bi-weekly payment

$427,372.36 remaining over 20 years

$69,251.76 paid to interest

$72,627.64 paid to principal

Accelerated Bi-Weekly

Just like regular bi-weekly, you are not making 2 payments every month. With 52 weeks in a year, you are actually making 26 payments, 2 more than semi-monthly. However because this is accelerated, the payment amount is higher.

$500,000 mortgage

3% interest rate

5-year term

$1,183.11 accelerated bi-weekly payment

$414,521.40 remaining over 17 years 4 months

$68,325.70 paid to interest

$85,478.60 paid to principal

You have increased your yearly payment amount by $2,384.98, $11,924.90 over 5-years. That extra $11,924.90 has decreased your outstanding balance at the end of your mortgage term by $12,850.96 because more of your payments went to principal and less went to interest. Also, you will now have your mortgage paid off more than 2.5 years earlier.

The same option is available for accelerated weekly payments which will shave another month off of time required to pay back the whole loan as well. If you can afford to go accelerated, your best option is to do so! Especially in the early years where a larger portion of your payments are going towards interest, not paying down your principal.

If you have any more questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional near you.